"Note the Bluff Trail detour at trail posts 42 and 43 near Walk-On Beach as our crews and Trails Committee get to work in wake of impacts left behind from last week's king tides." That line comes from TSRA Community Manager Menka Sethi's InfoAlert of January 7, 2026, which was mostly about good news. The same storms had added 4.9 million gallons to the reservoir and pushed the Gualala River to a peak flow of 14,100 cubic feet per second.
Ten months later the detour is still there. The tides that damaged that stretch are on the calendar again, three times between Thanksgiving week and late January. For anyone who walks the bluffs regularly, this winter's schedule depends less on the weather forecast than on a few predictable mornings.
Ten Months on the Leeward Meadows Detour
Since January the Bluff Trail between Trail Posts 42 and 43 has been closed until further notice for bluff erosion. TSRA routes walkers around it on the Leeward Meadows Trail between Sea Pine Reach and Seal Rock Reach. The Association's trails page still describes the segment as severely damaged and unstable. Temporary barriers mark the closure, and the page warns that walking into the closed area risks injury and may mean trespassing on private lots.
A week after the first notice, the January 14 InfoAlert set expectations for a slow fix. "Re-opening the bluff-trail will take time as we navigate the process through member committees and the County," it said, and it told members to watch InfoAlerts and TSRA.org for updates. The public trails page has no repair schedule. As of this writing, the detour signs are the plan for this winter.
That leaves a short gap in the ten-mile bluff walk, and those signs stay up through the season when the ocean reaches highest up the bluff face.
Three Windows When the Water Comes Highest
The California Coastal Commission's King Tides Project lists this season's statewide king tide dates as November 24 to 26, December 23 to 25, and January 21 to 22. On the Northern California coast the list can grow to include December 22, January 20, and January 23. The nearby NOAA tide station at Arena Cove, station 9416841, gives a useful reference point, and its predictions show the morning highs.
| Date | Approximate morning high at Arena Cove | Predicted height, feet above MLLW |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, November 24 | 9:30 a.m. | 7.3 |
| Wednesday, November 25 | 10:15 a.m. | 7.4 |
| Thursday, November 26 | 11:00 a.m. | 7.3 |
| Tuesday, December 22 | 8:20 a.m. | 7.3 |
| Wednesday, December 23 | 9:10 a.m. | 7.6 |
| Thursday, December 24 | 10:00 a.m. | 7.6 |
| Friday, December 25 | 10:55 a.m. | 7.5 |
| Wednesday, January 20 | 8:10 a.m. | 7.2 |
| Thursday, January 21 | 9:05 a.m. | 7.4 |
| Friday, January 22 | 9:55 a.m. | 7.4 |
| Saturday, January 23 | 10:50 a.m. | 7.2 |
On each of these days the second high tide comes near midnight and is lower, about 4.6 to 5.3 feet. So the big water arrives on the mid-morning walk: Thanksgiving morning, Christmas Eve morning, and a Friday in late January. The highest predicted tides of the season, about 7.6 feet, fall on December 23 and 24, roughly a week earlier in the calendar than the tides that preceded last January's closure.
Those times come from an Arena Cove model, so they are approximate for any given cove at The Sea Ranch. Black Point Beach and Walk-On Beach will each behave a little differently. A beach walk planned around a 10 a.m. high tide is better done earlier, and the bluff edge is better watched from the trail than from below it.
What the Tide Table Leaves Out
The Coastal Commission says its king tide dates come from the highest predicted astronomical tides and do not include storm surge or El Niño effects. That matters this year. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of October 8, 2026 keeps an El Niño Advisory in place. It calls a strong to very strong event likely through January to March 2027, with the odds staying above 83 percent. CPC's October strength forecast gives December through February an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño and a 16 percent chance of a strong one.
Sethi's August 19 InfoAlert, written after an earlier advisory, was careful about what that might mean locally. "A warmer ocean, higher water levels, and a healthy amount of rain are reasonable guesses," she wrote. "So is an even-keeled winter that gives us not much to talk about." A forecast deals in odds, and the outcome could go either way. The tide dates, by contrast, are fixed, and an El Niño winter can only add to them.
October Has Been Spent Getting Ready
This month the trails page has listed four sections closed for culvert work "in preparation for winter storms."
- Trail Post 34A to 35D
- Trail Post 35F to 36E
- The Firebreak Trail across from Whale Bone Reach, near mile marker 55.24
- Trail Post 14C to 15C
The notice says "throughout October," and November is days away. These sections should reopen soon, but tsra.org/tsr-trails is the place to confirm before heading out. In August, TSRA also reported that installation of a new 100-year-storm culvert and rock patches was in progress at Mariner's Bike Link to protect that path from storm damage.
The trees need watching too. The One-Eyed Jack's hedgerow trail, near Trail Posts 36B to 36E, now has signs warning that trunks, limbs, and branches can fall without warning. The risk is highest during and after strong winds, storms, or saturated soil. TSRA asks walkers to stay out in those conditions or whenever barriers are up. One-Eyed Jack's is one of the three Monterey cypress clusters, along with Del Mar and Horizon Reach, that the Association's consultant, PCI Ecological, studied this year to draft revegetation plans. Under the new hedgerow process, TSRA analyzes three clusters each spring, presents options in summer, opens community engagement in fall, and carries out restoration "as we head into winter." Updates are posted on the Association's Hedgerow Stewardship page.
This season's trail signs follow both the tide calendar and the Association's work calendar. Those king tide mornings and the stormy days after them are the days to choose a meadow or forest loop. TSRA counts more than 50 miles of trail, with numbered posts and rest logs. Donlyn Lyndon's Audio Walking Tour covers the southern stops, including Moonraker Recreation Center, Brigantine Reach, the Sea Ranch Lodge, Condominium One, and Bihler Point, and it suits a calm day better than a storm.
When the Bluff Is Off the Table
On a stormy morning many people head for a pool instead, and that option shrinks this fall as well. The Ohlson Recreation Center pool, saunas, and locker rooms were closed September 8 through October 18 for pool deck work. They now stay closed for additional repairs through November 22. Restrooms at ORC House remain open.
That makes the Del Mar Center pool at 40600 Leeward Road the main heated pool until Thanksgiving week. It measures 40 by 82 feet plus a shallow area. Winter hours begin Sunday, November 1, and run through March 13, 2027. Mornings stay the same, with reserved 45-minute lap slots from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. Open swim now ends at 6 p.m. instead of 7. Court hours also end an hour earlier: 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. Thursday through Tuesday, and 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Wednesday. Lap lanes and courts can be booked at tsra.org/book up to 96 hours ahead. The Del Mar kiosk is at 707-785-1914. Pickleball players should know that Moonraker's courts are striped and netted for pickleball, and Ohlson's courts are tennis only.
Ohlson is scheduled to reopen the day before the first king tide window starts on November 24. Two days later, Thanksgiving morning brings a 7.3-foot high tide at about 11 a.m.
We walk these same trails, and we pay attention to how the coast changes from one winter to the next. If you want to talk about The Sea Ranch's bluffs, hedgerows, or anything else about owning a home along them, Liisberg & Company would be glad to hear from you.